Kenya's August 2027 General Election is fast approaching, and property developers and investors are weighing whether it's better to move ahead with projects now or wait until the political uncertainty has passed.
The question came up during a real estate roundtable at the ENS offices, where industry players discussed how the election cycle could influence investment decisions, construction timelines and demand for property.
One view expressed during the discussion was that the market still has opportunities for developers willing to act early.
However, the period leading up to the election could bring a change in investor confidence, with some buyers and developers becoming more cautious as the polls approach.
That caution is already reflected in wider market commentary.
In March 2026, Business Daily reported that the value of approved building plans in Nairobi fell by 9.2% in 2025, with developers increasingly prioritising the completion of existing projects over launching new ones.
Knight Frank has also described 2026 as a period of absorption and completion rather than aggressive expansion.
Why elections can make property investors cautious
Real estate is a long-term investment.
Buying land, obtaining approvals, securing financing and completing construction can take years.
Developers therefore need some confidence that the economic and political environment will remain stable enough to support their projects.
As elections approach, some investors may delay major commitments while waiting for some clarity on government policy, public spending, taxation and the wider business environment.
This uncertainty can affect the decision to start a project.
It can also influence how quickly buyers commit, how lenders assess risk and how willing investors are to put money into developments that may not generate returns for several years.
This does not mean the entire property market stops moving during an election period.
Rather, investment decisions can become more selective, with projects supported by clear demand potentially continuing while more speculative developments are postponed.
A window of opportunity before the election
During the ENS roundtable, Shiv Arora suggested that the current period could still offer an opportunity for developers to move projects forward before election-related caution becomes more pronounced.
The advice was to start early, secure the necessary approvals, and use the coming months to prepare projects for construction.
A developer who begins the planning process now may be in a stronger position than one who waits until uncertainty has eased before taking the first steps.
Land acquisition, change-of-use applications, subdivision approvals, and other regulatory processes can take time.
Delaying these steps could push construction further into a period when investors or prospective buyers are more hesitant.
However, starting early does not mean rushing into a project. Developers still need to establish whether there is sufficient demand, whether financing is available and whether the project can remain viable if sales take longer than expected.
Should developers aim to complete projects before the election?
Not necessarily.
The more useful question is when a project will be ready for the market and whether it can withstand a period of slower sales.
The suggested strategy is to start approvals now, advance construction planning by February or March 2027, and use a potentially quieter period to move construction forward.
The idea is that developers could have completed or nearly completed units available when buyer confidence improves after the election.
This approach comes with risks.
Construction costs can change, approvals can take longer than expected, and demand may not recover according to a developer's preferred timetable.
For this reason, project timelines should be based on realistic assumptions rather than a firm expectation that the market will rebound immediately after the polls.
The market may favour developers who already have projects underway
Recent market data points to a distinction between ongoing construction and new project launches.
According to reporting by The Star on Knight Frank's market update, cement consumption rose by 21% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, even as the value of approved building plans in Nairobi declined over the same period.
The figures suggest that construction activity on existing projects continued while developers became more cautious about starting new ones.
This matters because developers with projects already underway may be able to focus on delivery while competitors are still waiting for greater certainty.
It may also create opportunities for buyers.
Where developers need to complete projects and sell existing inventory, prospective purchasers may find a wider choice of completed or nearly completed properties.
That does not automatically mean prices will fall.
The outcome will depend on the location, type of property, developer's financial position and level of demand.
Affordable housing may follow a different path
Election-related uncertainty is unlikely to affect every segment of the market in the same way.
Affordable housing, for example, has a different set of demand drivers from high-end apartments or speculative commercial developments.
Government-backed programmes, access to targeted financing and demand from households seeking lower-cost homes may help sustain activity in this segment.
Knight Frank has identified affordable housing and industrial real estate in Special Economic Zones among the areas expected to retain investment interest, even as developers remain cautious about broader expansion.
The important distinction is that a project backed by identifiable demand and a workable funding structure may be better positioned to proceed than one that relies heavily on optimistic sales projections.
Developers should still assess policy, funding and delivery risks carefully, particularly where a project depends on public-sector decisions.
What about commercial property and industrial real estate?
The election period could also affect commercial property, although not necessarily in the same way as residential development.
The panelists pointed to opportunities in office space, retail and industrial property.
Related: Kenya’s Property Market Is Starting to Shift as Commercial Real Estate Attracts New Capital
Some of these opportunities are driven by existing demand, limited supply in particular locations or investors looking to acquire buildings that already generate rental income.
For investors who are cautious about development risk, buying an established income-producing asset may be more appealing than funding a new project that will take years to complete.
Industrial and logistics developments may also benefit where there is clear demand from businesses, manufacturers and distributors.
Still, these sectors are not immune to election-related uncertainty. Investors will continue to consider financing costs, tenant demand, rental income and the time needed to recover their capital.
Buyers should not assume that waiting will guarantee a better deal
For people looking to buy a home or invest in property, the election cycle raises a different question: should they buy now or wait until after the election?
There is no universal answer.
Waiting could provide more time to assess the market, but it does not guarantee lower prices. Some developers may offer incentives to move existing stock, while properties in locations with limited supply may continue to attract interest.
Buyers should focus on their financial position, the property's suitability and the strength of the underlying investment case.
For homebuyers, this includes assessing affordability, mortgage repayments and the costs associated with purchasing a property. For investors, it means examining realistic rental income, vacancy risk, maintenance costs and the potential resale market.
The quality of the property and the terms of the transaction matter more than trying to predict the exact direction of the market around election day.
The real risk is making decisions based on the election alone
Kenya's property market has experienced different conditions during previous election cycles. Political uncertainty can influence investor confidence, but its impact depends on other factors, including interest rates, household purchasing power, construction costs and the wider economy.
A September 2026 analysis by Cytonn noted that election uncertainty can delay investment decisions, while also pointing out that the effect varies with broader economic conditions. It expects affordable housing and infrastructure investment to continue supporting parts of the real estate sector, although private-sector activity remains exposed to uncertainty.
For developers, the practical response is to plan for more than one possible outcome. That means controlling costs, avoiding excessive borrowing, securing credible funding and ensuring there is a realistic market for the finished property.
For buyers, it means avoiding rushed decisions based on fear that prices will rise, or assumptions that everything will become cheaper after the election.
A period for careful planning, not necessarily a complete pause
The consensus was not that developers should stop investing until the election is over.
Instead, it focused on the importance of timing and preparation.
Developers who begin approvals early, understand their target market and maintain realistic construction schedules may be better placed to navigate a period of uncertainty.
Some investors will wait. Others may continue with projects where the demand and financial case are strong.
As Kenya moves towards the 2027 General Election, the property market is therefore likely to reward careful planning over speculation.
What's interesting is that, based on past election periods, real estate has not been negatively affected.
The biggest question for developers is not simply whether to build before or after the election, but whether the project makes commercial sense under different market conditions.
